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NPD Sales Results for November 2013 [Up3: Zelda, Pokemon, Mario, 3DS, Wii U]

Mindblowing? I'd say hardly surprising; even without Mortimer's bit, it wouldn't be terribly surprising to figure that Sony will be stretched thin with the launch in Asia while MS will just keep throwing the vast majority of Xbones at the US/UK.

What will be really interesting is if the PS4 can keep pace in sales while the XB1 outships it here. It just might; those Xboxes aren't flying out the door quite as fast as they're coming in.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I can't get the math to work with these assumptions:

PS4 - 1138k
XBO - 909k
360 - 647k
PS3 - 12%
WIU - 232k
WII - 2%
PS3+PS4 is <10k greater than 360+XBO

So either the PS4 number (assumed to be leaked elsewhere by cs) is wrong or the Wii U number (from mort) is wrong.

HOWEVER, if you say that Xbox is <10k greater than PS, I can make the math work with the PS3 at 409k and Wii at 68k. That results in Xbox at 1556k and PS at 1547k.

HOWEVER PART 2, if you say the PS4 is 1151 and you are a little looser with your rounding, you can still make it work at PS3 409k and Wii 68k.

REGARDLESS, here are the approximate CONSOLE market shares for November rounded to the nearest whole number (margin of error roughly 0.5% depending upon incorrect assumptions):

PS4 - 33%
XBO - 27%
360 - 19%
PS3 - 12%
WIU - 7%
WII - 2%


What did I screw up?

Wii u is a little too high
 

Jomjom

Banned
I think Sony is being smart with the significant Asia shipment. With China opening up the market to video games I think Sony is trying to lock up that market in its infancy. With the wealth in China slowly rivaling that of the US, Sony could own a huge market down the road.
 

omonimo

Banned
I have to agree it just doesn't make any sense. It'd be Sony basically handing the Holidays to MS on a silver platter. Unless
Sony somehow has another million consoles lying around somewhere I just don't see it. Then again, what do I know.

What not has sense exactly? ps4 is sold out everywhere, probably is not expected to cover a so high demand.
 

Gestault

Member
REGARDLESS, here are the approximate CONSOLE market shares for November rounded to the nearest whole number (margin of error roughly 0.5% depending upon incorrect assumptions):

PS4 - 33%
XBO - 27%
360 - 19%
PS3 - 12%
WIU - 7%
WII - 2%


What did I screw up?

About 45% of November's US market going to Sony? That's a world I can live with.

(Gently caresses his Vita).
 

KAP151

Member
An absolute disaster, but hardly surprising numbers for WiiU.

There simply has to be a changing of the guard at NCL. No matter how much people deny it, it is obvious the old Yamauchi ways are still very much in play behind the scenes.

Bring in some new people with new ideas. Someone like Arakawa from back in the day.
 
So, looking at the worldwide sales picture, how much of that 9M shipment forecast is Nintendo likely to reach by the end of March? A quarter? Even less?
 

Barzul

Member
Sony will lose America. But win the rest of the world (except a few territories e.g Brazil). I have nothing else to back my claim but my belief and the substantial gap the 360 had over the PS3 this generation.
 

Finalizer

Member
What will be really interesting is if the PS4 can keep pace in sales while the XB1 outships it here. It just might; those Xboxes aren't flying out the door quite as fast as they're coming in.

Even if they're not flying off the shelves as fast as PS4s... I dunno, if Mortimer's 500k number is correct, that'd require a pretty damn sharp dropoff for Xbone demand, I think. Or PS4 to be a bit above that 1m/month estimate from Pachter; I've heard 1.2m a few times, but that might just be baseless conjecture, so who knows.

Also, I'm not really putting much stock into this whole notion of "winning the holidays" being so important to the whole race. I'm not buying into this notion that there will be hundreds of thousands of people going into stores where, failing to find a PS4, will simply opt for an Xbone instead and leave Sony with so many lost potential customers. Sounds like console warrior fantasy to me, really. If the demand is for PS4s, I suspect the vast majority of that segment to stick with seeking out PS4s, whether that be before or after Christmas.

the substantial gap the 360 had over the PS3 this generation.

PS2 -> PS3, etc.
 
Wii u is a little too high

Damn you, mort!

Now, the only way it makes sense is if cream rounded down to get to 12% because you can't get to PS > Xbox if PS4 is actually 1138k AND you stick to an actual 12%.

Here is my final pass, which should be really damn close and puts PS just above the Xbox console family:

PS4 - 1138k - 33.43%
XBO - 909k - 26.70%
360 - 647k - 19.01%
PS3 - 420k - 12.34%
WIU - 220k - 6.46%
WII - 70k - 2.06%
Total - 3404k

Playstation Family - 1558k
Xbox Family - 1556k
Nintendo Family - LOLk :(
 
So, looking at the worldwide sales picture, how much of that 9M shipment forecast is Nintendo likely to reach by the end of March? A quarter? Even less?

With Europe being completely dead, I think they'll be lucky to ship 2.5 million given the system only has DK for Q1. Now, how Iwata will manage to survive this I don't know, but I'm already expecting him to some get even more power out of this.

They can reach 9 mil still if they drop the price down to $99.

At this point they probably couldn't even produce the 9 million to give away if they wanted.
 

Codeblew

Member
Definitely the best one, at least that still holds up now. I loved Aliens vs Predator to death, but it's the kind of game that you can only play now if you played it then.

Oh, now you are jogging my memory. I had that game and some mech game as well. I remember the mech game looked pretty cool at the time with the amount of polygons but I have just never been into mechs.
 

Jomjom

Banned
Ok I can't tell if this is a serious demand people are making or a joke. Seen $99 thrown around a lot lately.

Not seriously asking for this price(I already have a Wii U), but this is literally the only possible way they would get close to 9 million. $199 won't do anything because the ps3 and the 360 will still look more appealing at that price.
 
What a stupid thing to say. Sony did well not leave the whole Japanese market to Nintendo. Not that the 3DS is not getting most sales anyway. Vita is doing ok ish in Japan. That´s better than having no handheld and just give the whole market to Nintendo.
Yeah, let's throw money at an irrelevant product, positioned in a market we aren't capable of competing in, because...market presence?
 
Sony will lose America. But win the rest of the world (except a few territories e.g Brazil). I have nothing else to back my claim but my belief and the substantial gap the 360 had over the PS3 this generation.

"I know the Wii U will recover. I just know it in my heart". It always kills me when people use random speculation instead of actual facts to forecast things. I don't recommend putting money in the stock market with that kind of attitude.
 
With Europe being completely dead, I think they'll be lucky to ship 2.5 million given the system only has DK for Q1. Now, how Iwata will manage to survive this I don't know, but I'm already expecting him to some get even more power out of this.

Are you saying the Wii U is a scam meant to so wildly devalue Nintendo stock that the company can easily buy it all back with their massive warchest?
 
Those Killzone numbers make me smile. It'd be nice if they were even higher, but the game is fantastic and it deserves those sales. Nice to see it was the best selling exclusive. A good feat considering it was up against the standard shooter juggernauts. I hope it continues to sell.

Makes me a little happier after seeing the Vita numbers... but then the Tearaway numbers make me shake my fucking head.
 

Codeblew

Member
Damn you, mort!

Now, the only way it makes sense is if cream rounded down to get to 12% because you can't get to PS > Xbox if PS4 is actually 1138k AND you stick to an actual 12%.

Here is my final pass, which should be really damn close and puts PS just above the Xbox console family:

PS4 - 1138k - 33.43%
XBO - 909k - 26.70%
360 - 647k - 19.01%
PS3 - 420k - 12.34%
WIU - 220k - 6.46%
WII - 70k - 2.06%
Total - 3404k

Playstation Family - 1558k
Xbox Family - 1556k
Nintendo Family - LOLk :(

You kicked Vita out of the PS family? =(
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Ps3 smidge too low.

Super happy with next gen attach rates. Thats good news.
they are nearly identitical at 2 now(rounding might give that to Xbox one but I dont even see much of a diff)
 

Dalthien

Member
With Europe being completely dead, I think they'll be lucky to ship 2.5 million given the system only has DK for Q1. Now, how Iwata will manage to survive this I don't know, but I'm already expecting him to some get even more power out of this.

It's not like they haven't known since like May that they were going to fall well short of the forecast. They just didn't know how much they were going to miss by, and didn't want to play the game of publicly revising the target down every quarter. So they've just been sticking with their forecast publicly until the CY numbers come in, and then they'll do one big embarrassing revision with the Q3 numbers, instead of a bunch of embarrassing revisions every quarter.

But everyone inside Nintendo has known they had no shot of making that figure for the better part of a year now. Hell - it was clear to all of us in SalesAge as early as like June (and even earlier for some) that there was no chance of reaching that number. The question is more along the lines of - what were the realistic expectations within the brass at Nintendo, and did they come close to those or not. The 9M number has been irrelevant to Iwata's position for most of this FY.
 

Fnord

Member
Those Killzone numbers make me smile. It'd be nice if they were even higher, but the game is fantastic and it deserves those sales. Nice to see it was the best selling exclusive. A good feat considering it was up against the standard shooter juggernauts. I hope it continues to sell.

Makes me a little happier after seeing the Vita numbers... but then the Tearaway numbers make me shake my fucking head.

I'm assuming you're referencing the MP in KZ:SF. Never messed with that side of things, but I didn't find the SP all that compelling outside of the OWL and visuals.
 

rdrr gnr

Member
Those Killzone numbers make me smile. It'd be nice if they were even higher, but the game is fantastic and it deserves those sales. Nice to see it was the best selling exclusive. A good feat considering it was up against the standard shooter juggernauts. I hope it continues to sell.

Makes me a little happier after seeing the Vita numbers... but then the Tearaway numbers make me shake my fucking head.
I feel the opposite.
 

NolbertoS

Member
Man thats horrible numbers for the Big N :(. Not having a mario or zelda game in whatever platform as a Top Ten software wounds Nintendo pride. Also as expected FPS dominate US software sales. Seems the only genre most Americans care about nowadays. Tis sad TBH, as that won't encourage more developers to try other genres. And poor Vita :'(. Maybe the last handheld Sony releases. Seems Nintendo has the handheld market cornered, even with lastlustre sales. Nintendo has itself to blame in them being in this mess though. Calling your successor Wii U?? Not at least trying to match half of this gen's specs, instead are still using last gen's technology. Iwata better right this ship ASAP, or give somebody else a shot at running Nintendo
 

Ansatz

Member
"I know the Wii U will recover. I just know it in my heart". It always kills me when people use random speculation instead of actual facts to forecast things. I don't recommend putting money in the stock market with that kind of attitude.

Intuition is how Wii became a phenomenon.

Imagine the scenario that Wii Sports was initially a Gamecube title and the Wiimote sold as an accessory, then some guy called Satoru tells you to build an entire home console around that game and controller.
 

Haines

Banned
It's not dead, because it's still going to receive releases throughout next year and it's still going to be stocked at retail.

But it is dying, it will have a very short life, and it will never thrive. Those things are all now 99% certain.

What does Nintendo do? Support it even tho it wont make money?
 

Dysun

Member
Good numbers for Killzone considering it's a launch title. Haters calling for the franchise to end can keep caw-cawing while eating crow like the legion in "How has Killzone survived 10 years" thread
 

Colby

Member
Not seriously asking for this price(I already have a Wii U), but this is literally the only possible way they would get close to 9 million. $199 won't do anything because the ps3 and the 360 will still look more appealing at that price.

This is true. The only thing that can save Wii U now is Xbox One-level marketing (which just isn't possible for Nintendo) or a blockbuster game. Right now, there isn't a price out there that is both feasible for Nintendo and attractive to the customer. Of the announced games, only Mario Kart has a chance of breathing life into the system (I don't believe Smash can do it, and Donkey Kong, X, and Bayo 2 are going to totally bomb). If I were Nintendo, I would spend all of my marketing resources and time on Mario Kart and bombard every medium with advertising. Do I think that will work? No, but that is their best option, short of releasing that elusive blockbuster game.
 
It's not dead, because it's still going to receive releases throughout next year and it's still going to be stocked at retail.

But it is dying, it will have a very short life, and it will never thrive. Those things are all now 99% certain.

Nintendo need to full court press the Wii U al next year to sell enough to even keep supply and software relationships operational. If they launch a new thing in 2016 with even less third party action, then fuck.
 
Sony will lose America. But win the rest of the world (except a few territories e.g Brazil). I have nothing else to back my claim but my belief and the substantial gap the 360 had over the PS3 this generation.

Although I get what you're thinking simply because the U.S. has normally been Xbox land the past 8 years. But that is changing. If these numbers aren't any indication to you, then I don't know what is.

If the PS4 sold equal, or a little less than the XB1 in the U.S., then it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone. But since it's the other way around, why do you think this thread has 380,000 views? Because people are going apeshit that the PS4 is able to outsell the Xbox in its biggest territory.
 

dolemite

Member
With the exception of the Xbone and PS4, the numbers are actually pretty bad. The two consoles sucked all the life out of everything else.
 

Forceatowulf

G***n S**n*bi
Any Knack data come in yet? I need the numbers for the inevitable Nintendo fan meltdowns when it out performs Super motherfucking Mario.

The tears will keep me nourished for the winter.
 
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